World Cup - first knockout round

Sixteen have become eight and all the favourites came through. What have we learned?

Firstly, my predictions were about as accurate as a Uruguayan linesman's eyesight. I expected Paraguay v Japan to be tighter than a Yorkshireman the day before payday and so it proved, the South Americans coming through after a shoot-out in which I read neither goalkeeper came any closer to making a save than during the preceding 120 minutes. I also thought Uruguay would edge it against South Korea and they did, lifting the tempo impressively after conceding an equaliser. Argentina and the Netherlands were always going to beat Mexico and Slovakia quite comfortably. And I anticipated Spain would eventually find a way through a Portuguese barricade, although we could have done without Capdevila faking an injury even if the imaginary culprit Costa had hacked his way through the game.

Maybe five out of eight isn't bad. As for the rest... Chile didn't fulfil my prediction that they would give Brazil a tough game, although of all the teams that are out I'll miss them the most, with their commitment to attack and willingness to get stuck in both reminiscent of the England of old even though their skill level (i.e. they have some) isn't. Ghana overturned the USA, suggesting that Group D really was the weakest of the lot, as The Sun suspected at the beginning. I loved the Ghanaian change strip of red and yellow stripes and the fact that when Gyan could have fallen down to get Bocanegra sent off, he stayed on his feet and scored.

Which, in view of Matthew Upson's feeble attempt to haul down Miroslav Klose, brings me neatly to England. My prediction that we would sneak past Germany was a case of heart ruling head, although both punters and pundits seemed to share my view. Most England sports teams have to be either world-beaters or total failures in the eyes of the Press and the less informed public, because the middle ground is less interesting and doesn't sell newspapers. I suspect that if Lampard's goal had stood the Germans wouldn't have scored twice without reply in the second half, although there wasn't enough in our team's performance to suggest we could have beaten them.The defence was a shambles, the midfield was always chasing shadows, Defoe got no service and Rooney was anonymous again, although I noted he managed a shot on target two minutes from the end, which may have been his second of the tournament. One of my predictions was right though: just after the third German goal went in I told my assembled family that another would follow and in short order, it did.

Predictably the BBC World Cup coverage is now swamped with a dissection of England's campaign, which at least makes a change from the usual vivisection. Now it's whether Capello should go, which players ought to be dumped, whether there's a new generation of better youngsters coming through. I'd prefer them to concentrate on the teams left in the competition who (with the possible exception of Paraguay - did I mention I wish Chile were still there instead?) deserve their places. In any case the wonderful Gills365 pubcast - four ordinary football fans sat in a room masquerading as a licensed establishment - has provided far better analysis of the failings of English football from top to bottom than any mainstream media outlet I've come across.

I'll write some more on England when I have any more enthusiasm for the topic than most of the players appeared to - and that could be a long time coming.

In the meantime I'm thoroughly excited about the prospect of four World Cup quarter-finals even though I'll probably see at most two and a half of them. Argentina v Germany could be a classic. Both teams look better in attack than defence and it will be interesting to see whether Joachim Loew finds it as easy to unpick the Argies as he did England (summarised as "we knew the defence was a mess and they would leave gaps in midfield"). Many observers have written off the Germans but their pace on the counter-attack could cause Maradona's men some problems. I have to go with Argentina but I reckon Germany will score and it could be close.

Uruguay v Ghana is the battle of the underdogs. Both teams impressed in spells during their last games: Uruguay seemed almost complacent in their superiority until South Korea equalised, then raised their game again and eased clear, while Ghana managed a couple of quick bursts early in normal and extra time to beat a disappointing American team. No African team has ever gone past the quarter-finals at a World Cup and I don't think that will change: my hunch is Uruguay will edge it. Incidentally, on the subject of the Americans, Landon Donovan gave a tearful, unintentionally hilarious post-match interview in which he said he'd had "an incredible journey". The comedians on Alan Davies's podcast suggested perhaps he'd been upgraded from economy to business on his flight to a loan spell at Everton, and was overwhelmed by movies on demand. Presumably England were not afforded such luxuries on their return to London yesterday.

I have to back Brazil against the Netherlands because unlike Brazilian teams of the past, they are solid and don't look likely to concede a lot of goals. Robben v Michel Bastos could be a great battle but I fancy Maicon to be a threat on the other side and Robinho can unlock defences, unless playing for Man City. A Dutch win wouldn't be a huge surprise to me but I have the South Americans to win it by a couple of goals.

That leaves Spain with the unenviable task of preventing a Latin American clean sweep in the semi-finals and I think they will do it. Probably they'll find themselves playing against a packed defence for the fourth time in the tournament but their willingness to throw the full-backs forward (Sergio Ramos was brilliant against Portugal) should give them the extra bodies they need to work an opening. I'll take Spain to win 1-0.

To be honest though, I don't mind at this stage who wins either any particular match or eventually the whole tournament. It would be good if FIFA could throw out boring Paraguay and reinstate cavalier Chile - did I mention I enjoyed watching them? Failing that, I will find new heroes and villains over the coming days to root for or against. And may the best team win... provided it isn't Paraguay.

The World Cup - so far

The World Cup is in full swing. Halfway through according to the calendar, three-quarters by matches played, one-fifth by progress in finding out the winners, and finished already if you're French or Italian. I couldn't resist some good old-fashioned Schadenfreude at the fate of the previous finalists, even though England were perilously close to joining them on the plane back to Europe. The only trouble with the French going out with such a whimper is they didn't get to taste their own medicine; I'd hoped they would be dismissed from the tournament by a terrible refereeing decision like that by which they qualified. Instead, the coach showed himself to be almost barking mad, the players went on strike, everyone fell out with each other and they played some of the most tedious, couldn't-care-less football imaginable.

Along with the gloriously overrated Italians, I was delighted to see the back of Switzerland tonight. They deserve credit for their staunch (and successful) defence against Spain but they had no attacking intent or quality whatsoever. The first set of matches suggested we were going to see a lot of teams like that, as they were too many short of flair and the better teams were afraid of losing. No one seemed entirely certain whether the World Cup was supposed to be a celebration of international sport, or the ultimate football championship. Did New Zealand, North Korea and Slovenia really deserve to be there, or was the tournament bloated by also-rans? As if the fear-ridden football wasn't bad enough, we had to bear the vuvuzelas. In this great football party, not only had we got stuck in the corner with a boring uncle, but someone had invited 50,000 bees. My objection to the horns was that they drowned out any of the other noises that bring a football match to life everywhere in the world except South Africa. Only in two England matches have I heard any significant singing, although the Spanish drummer had a good go.

Thankfully the second set of group matches saw an improvement in the quality, as the fixture combinations obliged the big guns to go for wins. Over the past four days the final group matches have been played, mostly with something at stake, and I know the standard has risen because the pundits have stopped debating the vagaries of the Jabulani ball. Apparently it was to blame for the wayward shooting and goalkeeping errors in the early games. And there I was thinking the players maybe just weren't that good. On the subject of pundits, there were some welcome new voices, including Robbie Savage who donated his summariser's fee to charity after one tedious game "because there was nothing to summarise", and Five Live's Alan Green urged viewers not to waste time watching the highlights of another match. Mr Green though was heard to praise the standard of refereeing in the tournament; possibly the altitude got to him. I don't think anyone was praising the French referee M. Lannoy after he sent off Kaka for an offence he couldn't have seen even if it had existed or the Malian who disallowed a last-minute American winner because three Slovenians were committing fouls at the time. But overall, allowing for some officiousness, the standard of refereeing has been far higher than the standard of sportsmanship - yes, I'm thinking of you Mssrs Fabiano, Keita and Torisidis.

I've seen around a dozen games so far, in full or significant part, and Argentina have caught my eye the most. Their back line may be as solid as a damp spongecake, but any team whose reserve strikeforce dismantles the 11-man Greek defence is fine by me. They have to go far in the tournament because it can ill afford to lose Diego Maradona, who's probably even nuttier than M. Domenech but seems to know more about football and has far better players to work with.

Brazil looked good in their first two games, less so against Portugal tonight when all 22 players including the goalkeeper could have sat in a huddle in the centre circle, so little effort did anyone make to break the deadlock. It was just like Portugal's first game against Ivory Coast in fact. Still on the South American theme, Uruguay declined to beat France in their opening game but won their group all the same; and Paraguay took advantage of Italy's demise to win theirs as well. I haven't seen much of them - mercifully on the evidence of their most recent game. Above all I was delighted to see Chile progress: a team that gets stuck in, plays some good football and apart from the last few minutes tonight look like they will always try to win. Actually I quite fancy the Chileans to give Brazil a decent game. 

In contrast to the South Americans, the Africans lived up to the old adage that when a major tournament comes around you should always bet against them. Algeria were one of only two teams not to score a goal, Cameroon lost all three games, South Africa put up a brave fight but never looked good enough to progress and the Ivory Coast were emasculated - the Sven effect? Ghana now carry the hopes of a continent but could well lose to the USA.

Of the minnows, New Zealand managed three draws despite not having a forward line, and but for a dodgy penalty might have beaten Italy. North Korea looked robust for an hour against Brazil, then folded and ended up with a dozen goals against them. But their centre-forward did cry during the anthems so everyone loves him. Australia took a hammering first off but like their fellow ex-colonies avoided finishing bottom of their group, despite two red cards. Japan and South Korea shouldn't be considered minnows and both not only qualified but have more than half a chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Honduras named three brothers in their squad - a World Cup first - but unfortunately only one of them was Wilson Palacios and the team was rubbish, frankly.

The European challenge so far has been led by the Netherlands, who won all three games without breaking sweat. We've seen that before: they usually sprint through the group stage and then lose to someone hopeless at the first knockout round. It could be different this time, with the squad reputedly united for the first time in a generation. Spain got through and apart from an unfortunate defeat to the massed defence known as Switzerland, they've looked good. I expect them to beat the timid Portuguese, who seem to be a one-man team and he hasn't turned up yet. Serbia and Denmark unexpectedly sucked. Slovakia proved they weren't Slovenia by beating Italy but should be cannon fodder to the Dutch - famous last words perhaps. Germany impressed the easily impressed by thrashing Australia with attacking intent possibly forced on them by the scheduling of their most winnable game first. I haven't seen that much of the Germans but their young team has a good pedigree.

So, what of England? I was in a minority in thinking the first performance against the USA wasn't bad, and but for a fluke soft goal we would have been off to a flying start. I would be in a minority of one if I thought the Algeria game had any merits at all beyond not losing - but I didn't. Against Slovenia we should have won comfortably from the chances created and it cost us top place in the group. If we can get past Germany we'll probably face Argentina, who should have too much for a talented but lightweight Mexico; one more goal and we'd have faced Ghana and then possibly Uruguay. It will take a huge effort and a big improvement for England to progress much further and in a way, unpatriotic as it sounds, I don't mind. Although against Slovenia we had more pace and aggression, we're miles behind some of the other countries on technical ability and joie de vivre (or joie de jouer). Spain, Brazil and Argentina happily pass the ball to someone who's marked, confident he won't lose it; we prefer to go back to the keeper. Too many England players are decidedly ordinary at this level and I firmly believe the "golden generation" will fall short again. At least the slow start has helped keep a lid on expectations this time, unlike some previous tournaments. Our easy qualification ought to have got everyone excited, but for once the watching public could see we were patently inferior to at least one close neighbour (Spain - 33 wins out of 34 coming into the tournament, I believe, and they played us off the pitch in a friendly). No doubt by Sunday the anticipation will crank up another notch, although I hope without too many mentions of the war or a match 44 years and 8,000 miles away from Bloemfontein.

If I had to put money on it I would back us to scrape past Germany and then lose comfortably (by more than one goal) to Argentina. I'm not sure if that would be better or worse than just losing to cardigan-wearing Joachim Loew and getting it over with. I can take the despair, it's the hope I can't stand.

Keeping the Faith - Bon Jovi at the O2

Although they won't know or care, the music of Bon Jovi has played an important part in both Sarah's life and mine. She grew up with the sound of New Jersey from her brother's stereo; I discovered Jon Bon during great years at university thanks to a housemate; lending Sarah a tape (probably Slippery When Wet) was one of the ways I inadvertently and auspiciously first attracted her attention; and playing Keep the Faith LOUD was a surefire way to calm down Bump (who became Adam) on long car journeys.

In light of this, it seemed appropriate that Sarah's first concert should be Bon Jovi and her birthday gave me the perfect opportunity to splash out on tickets for their residency at the O2 arena. When I saw photos taken of another concert from the vertiginous upper tier, I was very glad I paid extra to be within sight of the stage, not just the screens. Although it has to be said the screens, clustered in stacks and mounted on a track around the periphery of the stage or perched on universal joints as a backdrop which turned into a flight of stairs, were a joy in themselves.

The passage of time meant Sarah actually attended another concert first: the Stereophonics at Cardiff. By coincidence it was in the same city that I saw Bon Jovi previously: the 1995 Crossroad tour with support from the brilliant Van Halen and my personal favourites Thunder. A purpose-built arena would be a different prospect though.

Come Sunday we found ourselves witnessing a momentous occasion, although for a rather strange reason. Bon Jovi keyboard player David Bryan has branched out into musicals and was in New York collecting Tony awards for Memphis, the first time in 27 years that he's missed a Bon Jovi concert. Jeff Kazee from the Asbery Jukes stepped in, hidden under a hat, and I couldn't tell the difference.

It's only fair I record that Jon Bon Jovi can no longer reach some of the high notes; a problem covered moderately well by a few altered arrangements and by the old staple of audience participation. I commented whilst watching a Robbie Williams concert on TV several years ago that he got the crowd to sing Angels because he couldn't hit the top notes without autotune, and I was only half joking. Sarah disputed it - she's quite a fan of Robbie and if all else fails, points out he can sing better than me - but reminded me of this comment after JBJ hid from the upper registers. Probably I should also note at this point that Jon should hold off on the botox and let his face catch up with his neck.

Despite this, it was a great show. 23,000 people were there to be entertained and, I suppose in many cases, to remember the old times. There was a broad range of ages and it was noticeable that far fewer people sang along with the more recent songs. Sarah and I were largely lost on anything from The Circle and seemed in a minority in knowing Something for the Pain, which goes back about three albums now. The other big difference I noticed, compared to the National Stadium Cardiff 15 years ago, was that lighters have been replaced by the grey glow of mobile phones and digital cameras, held aloft in their hundreds from start to finish.

A review in one of the London free papers suggested Bon Jovi had rehearsed the show too much, but I just thought it was slick as you would expect with some fun elements thrown in. Richie Sambora led Lay Your Hands on Me (sung almost entirely by the crowd) during a JBJ costume change and about an hour in, the band ventured onto a semi-circular stage between the VIP area and mosh pit for an acoustic interlude which included the brilliant Bed of Roses. There was still another hour, plus the excruciating wait for an encore which included In These Arms and of course finished with Livin' on a Prayer, sung first a cappella by the crowd to the first chorus and then again from the start in its entirety by the band.

For us there were only two disappointments. The first was that the set didn't include the wonderful These Days; the second was that it had to end. I may well never see Bon Jovi in concert again - been there done that and literally got the T-shirt last time as well - but we're now downloading the back catalogue. That should ensure Bon Jovi continue to play a part in our lives in the future too.

World Cup - the English heroes/villains are named

Sometimes I wonder why Fabio Capello is paid untold millions to be the England manager. There are legions of ordinary men in the street who could do the job just as well if not better. Or so they think. And today, with the World Cup less than two weeks away, they got to play fantasy squad selection - and then see where Signor Capello disagreed with them.

Most of the squad picked itself, given that Capello had already ruled out the likes of Brown, Hargreaves and Zamora with his original 30-man selection. Whichever of the three goalkeepers turns out to be first choice, they were all certainties for South Africa, as were Glen Johnson, Ashley Cole, Terry, Ferdinand, Lampard, Rooney, Heskey and Defoe. Close behind in the odds-on stakes were Milner, Crouch and Carragher. We knew Barry would go if fit, so too King in all likelihood, absent knees notwithstanding. That left questions about cover for defence and the wide midfield positions, key players' fitness and whether Bent had done enough to edge out someone else up front. Did Capello have some cunning plan or was it a straight first team and back up in each position?

The answer, as it turns out, was the latter. It was no surprise to see Darren Bent absent, even though he outscored all Englishmen bar Rooney last season. He's done very little in an England shirt, not least because no one else passes to him. Whether that's because he takes up bad positions or just because he isn't part of the gang, I'm not sure. There's no point taking someone to South Africa who could play in every game and never get a kick of the ball.

Of the remaining choices, Carrick and Wright-Phillips were fortunate to get the nod after poor seasons. Has either of them been better than Walcott, who "sensationally" misses out? Parker and Dawson can't have been surprised to find themselves unwanted after failing to get on the pitch during the recent friendlies but by that token Stephen Warnock also ought to have found himself on holiday; presumably he found himself second in line only because Baines manoeuvred himself to the back of the queue with an atrocious display against Mexico. Huddlestone probably knew his chance had gone once Barry showed signs of being fit, which is a shame as the Spurs youngster had a good season and would have offered something a bit different in the holding role.

Despite rumours to the contrary, King was eventually selected as cover for Terry. I'd have taken Dawson, despite his lack of international experience, because the two of them play alongside each other for Spurs, but Capello prefers almost-relegated Upson. Frankly the centre of the defence is likely to leak like a sieve whoever plays. I'm relieved to see Joe Cole included: he's a class act.

For me the unluckiest player of all - and the most baffling exclusion by Capello - was Adam Johnson. Perhaps the manager took note of what happened with Walcott at the last World Cup, when he was picked on a whim despite Eriksson never having seen him play, and offered nothing at all. But Johnson is a different case. He's 22 years old, has played over 150 senior games and made the step up to the Premier League with ease, displacing a certain SWP from the Man City team in the process. Not only that but in five minutes against Mexico he showed more attacking threat than some of his team-mates had in the preceding 85. Crucially, for me he offers something different: a left-footer who can deliver quality from wide positions, without always having to beat the full-back first. There's a hint of Beckham in that respect. Joe Cole tends to run inside and can get crowded out, whereas Johnson can stay wide if needed and create space for others. I'd have risked Gerrard or Milner in the holding role if Barry got injured and omitted Carrick to make room for Johnson. Maybe this World Cup has come too soon; he has the potential to be an important player for England in the next few years.

Tomorrow the squad numbers will be announced, no doubt leading to more speculation about whether they're significant. Who will get the number 1 jersey? Who will be 9 and 10? Whatever happens it can't be more badly organised than today. The FA named the squad at 4pm but by then a combination of Twitter and well-connected journalists had already leaked the news. Quite why Capello didn't take his squad straight from the plane to a hotel yesterday and name the squad before sending them home, is beyond me. Still, if that's the only glitch in England's run to the World Cup final we'll probably forgive him.

On the rocks (Martini)

So, Gavin Henson and Charlotte Church have split up. Apparently she was unhappy about his friendship (or should that be "friendship") with an actress.

According to the papers this morning, Welsh rugby player Gav started the healing process by ushering a group of mates onto a plane and getting utterly rat-addled in Spain. The delectable Miss Church, meanwhile, consoled herself by going shopping.

Their entire relationship has been something of a celebrity cliche; it's good to see they're being consistent to the end.