Most of the squad picked itself, given that Capello had already ruled out the likes of Brown, Hargreaves and Zamora with his original 30-man selection. Whichever of the three goalkeepers turns out to be first choice, they were all certainties for South Africa, as were Glen Johnson, Ashley Cole, Terry, Ferdinand, Lampard, Rooney, Heskey and Defoe. Close behind in the odds-on stakes were Milner, Crouch and Carragher. We knew Barry would go if fit, so too King in all likelihood, absent knees notwithstanding. That left questions about cover for defence and the wide midfield positions, key players' fitness and whether Bent had done enough to edge out someone else up front. Did Capello have some cunning plan or was it a straight first team and back up in each position?
The answer, as it turns out, was the latter. It was no surprise to see Darren Bent absent, even though he outscored all Englishmen bar Rooney last season. He's done very little in an England shirt, not least because no one else passes to him. Whether that's because he takes up bad positions or just because he isn't part of the gang, I'm not sure. There's no point taking someone to South Africa who could play in every game and never get a kick of the ball.
Of the remaining choices, Carrick and Wright-Phillips were fortunate to get the nod after poor seasons. Has either of them been better than Walcott, who "sensationally" misses out? Parker and Dawson can't have been surprised to find themselves unwanted after failing to get on the pitch during the recent friendlies but by that token Stephen Warnock also ought to have found himself on holiday; presumably he found himself second in line only because Baines manoeuvred himself to the back of the queue with an atrocious display against Mexico. Huddlestone probably knew his chance had gone once Barry showed signs of being fit, which is a shame as the Spurs youngster had a good season and would have offered something a bit different in the holding role.
Despite rumours to the contrary, King was eventually selected as cover for Terry. I'd have taken Dawson, despite his lack of international experience, because the two of them play alongside each other for Spurs, but Capello prefers almost-relegated Upson. Frankly the centre of the defence is likely to leak like a sieve whoever plays. I'm relieved to see Joe Cole included: he's a class act.
For me the unluckiest player of all - and the most baffling exclusion by Capello - was Adam Johnson. Perhaps the manager took note of what happened with Walcott at the last World Cup, when he was picked on a whim despite Eriksson never having seen him play, and offered nothing at all. But Johnson is a different case. He's 22 years old, has played over 150 senior games and made the step up to the Premier League with ease, displacing a certain SWP from the Man City team in the process. Not only that but in five minutes against Mexico he showed more attacking threat than some of his team-mates had in the preceding 85. Crucially, for me he offers something different: a left-footer who can deliver quality from wide positions, without always having to beat the full-back first. There's a hint of Beckham in that respect. Joe Cole tends to run inside and can get crowded out, whereas Johnson can stay wide if needed and create space for others. I'd have risked Gerrard or Milner in the holding role if Barry got injured and omitted Carrick to make room for Johnson. Maybe this World Cup has come too soon; he has the potential to be an important player for England in the next few years.
Tomorrow the squad numbers will be announced, no doubt leading to more speculation about whether they're significant. Who will get the number 1 jersey? Who will be 9 and 10? Whatever happens it can't be more badly organised than today. The FA named the squad at 4pm but by then a combination of Twitter and well-connected journalists had already leaked the news. Quite why Capello didn't take his squad straight from the plane to a hotel yesterday and name the squad before sending them home, is beyond me. Still, if that's the only glitch in England's run to the World Cup final we'll probably forgive him.
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